China is the world`s largest donor and producer of fossil fuels and renewable energy. Of all coal-fired power plants developing outside China, a quarter or 102 GW of capacity was linked to financing from Chinese financial institutions and/or companies. However, COVID-19 has so far limited China`s investment in fossil infrastructure abroad, and its share of foreign investment in the renewable energy sector has reached its highest level on record. COVID-19 has increased uncertainty about China`s emissions by 2030. Within the upper edge of current Chinese policy under a COVID-19 scenario, CTU projections show that China`s greenhouse gas emissions would increase by 2030, although the rate of increase is expected to slow towards the end of the 2020s; below, our analysis suggests that China`s emissions may have peaked as early as 2019. Total primary energy consumption in China in different scenarios. The results of the strategy package in our modelling show that the current climate change policy will limit China`s absolute energy consumption growth, but will not allow it to reach a peak. Overall primary energy consumption in China continues to increase, but is gradually moving towards a slower pace after 2040. Nine tougher strategies would be needed to meet the energy needs of the IEA18 and Reinventing Fire scenarios.
Reform of the energy system is essential for China to achieve its CO213 emissions. Continued efforts to improve energy efficiency will prove to be the changing and will underpin the effects of China`s strategy on the energy revolution in 203014. China`s new development model is the main driver of the downward trend in greenhouse gas emissions3. The industrial structure and decarbonisation of the energy system are the two main drivers of emission reductions, followed by a decrease in energy intensities and emission intensity11. Rational urbanization should be another key factor15. Finally, readers should keep in mind that frequent changes in energy statistics have led to great uncertainty about China`s ability to meet its CO216 emission reduction targets.16 The data used in this document were validated by China`s official think tank, the National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation, and assured that these were the most recent statistics available.